Managing in an Unpredictable World

Ref : BM0022AG02

Theme : Forecasting

Contributor : Arnaud Gorgeon

Arnaud Gorgeon is a well-known Professor of Information Systems. He holds a Masters Degree in Engineering, an MBA from IE Business School in Madrid and a Ph.D. from the UCLA Anderson School of Management in Los Angeles.

Video Summary

Making predictions is part of being human.
Why then are we so bad at predicting inflation, unemployment rates, stock returns, book sales, number of war casualties, or even start-ups future profitability ?
These are to name just a few…

Learning Objectives

- To identify the factors limiting our predictive abilities in complex environments
- To understand the limitations of our cognitive processes and forecasting methods
- To apprehend better the complexity and unpredictability of our environment

Key Words

Complexity, prediction, uncertainty, unpredictability, forecasting methods, luck, cognitive biases